It’s as if the entire world is scrambling to reorder itself as Egypt’s “revolution” seems to have made some sort of difference for now. Uprisings have been reported around the world with varying degrees of failure. However, it seems regarding Libya, there is a real concern in the world that Gaddafi may be the next to fall.
The progression of the uprisings is not what I am interested in writing about; you can probably do a search and come up with better sources than me. What I do want to discuss is the possible repercussions of a revolution in Libya.
Libya is an oil-producing nation, the third largest in Africa to be more informative. Due to recent events not a lot of transactions of oil have been made. Though Libya only contributes around 2 per cent to the global oil exchange, any oil in today’s world is important and countries like America could very well need that extra 2 per cent. As a result, you’ve probably noticed the gas prices increasing recently. Socio-political changes inside Libya even after the uprisings could still mean getting oil out of Libya becomes unsafe and unreliable. As a consequence, large oil-consuming countries may turn to alternative locations where oil is readily available and there are no instability or hindrances to obtaining it. Lo and behold, living in the province of Alberta, there is a large deposit of oil right in our backyard. Nations may turn to alternative sources for the liquid gold.
It is interesting to observe countries’ reaction to the uprisings, but China in particular seems to be the most peculiar. Much like over 2,000 years ago, China is still relatively isolationist in terms of its foreign policy, as it does not want the world to interfere in their nations’ internal affairs. Yet despite that most of the Chinese in Libya have already fled the country, China is sending four military transport aircraft and a guided-missile frigate off the shores of Libya. This is reasoned to China’s fear of a large uprising within herself and therefore she is supporting this movement for “freedom.” Hypocritical as it may be this could be the dawn of a stronger presence from China on the global stage when enforcing various policies. China is very carefully pushing an envelope and one miscalculation could lead to instability.
Middle Eastern relations may change, as with Egypt. If Gaddafi is on his way out, who will replace him? It could be another dictator or a faulty democracy. With 97 per cent of its population being followers of Islam, the Muslim Brotherhood may become a legitimate contender for political power. The establishment of a democracy in Libya could do more harm than good and let’s not forget, Italy is just a few nautical miles from Libya. As times change in the region, Europe may also need to reconsider how it will deal with its new neighbor, be they friend or foe and with instability within Europe herself things may escalate very quickly if care is not taken.
Follow the Libyan Uprising at the New York Post. Learn more about China’s role at The Economist.