Between the years zero and one thousand, the world’s population went from roughly 190 million to 250 million. A measly difference. However, between 1800 and 2021 (a difference of just 221 years) the population has increased by almost seven BILLION. Population growth in the last 200 years has been exponential. At the current rate, by the end of the century earth’s population will be close to 15 billion people. A number far above what the planet’s resources can support. Numerous predictions have depicted a dystopian future of poverty and starvation. So how worried should we be?
Turns out, only slightly (probably). A new trend is surfacing.
As the 19th century approached, birthrates in Britain took a nosedive due to industrialization. Possibly for the first time ever (It’s important to keep in mind that at this point Britain was the epicenter of modernism). This movement would continue not only in Britain but would spread like wildfire across Europe and beyond. This phenomena become known as the Demographic Transition.
As more and more countries approach first world status the global population slowly comes to a halt. At this point, a vast majority of western countries have reached a climax. Without the addition of immigration, most western populations would be declining, quickly. According to the Census Bureau, in 2020 America grew by just 0.35%. The smallest increase since 1900. Even countries like China (a third-world country just a matter of decades ago) are beginning the Demographic Transition. Currently, China’s elderly population makes up about 9.5 percent of the overall population. By the year 2050, the United Nations estimates that number to grow to roughly 28 percent. So in other words, it took Britain hundreds of years to go through the demographic transition, but it took China only a matter of decades.
China isn’t an exception either. Most major Asian countries, including India, have begun the demographic transition. In fact, Japan is already at the end of its transition. With an elderly population of 28%, Japan will see a major decline in population over the coming decades.
Why Is This Happening?
A combination of factors has led to the current state of population growth. Most notably the increased use of contraceptives and widespread education for women. As families tiptoe closer to more modern lifestyles reproduction decreases. There is no longer a need for children to help plow the fields or work in factories (in first-world countries). Urban living, longer work hours, birth control, education, and improved health care all lead to the current situation. The average lifetime has gone from the late thirties in 1800 to the early eighties today (in Canada).
So What Does This Mean?
Well, slower population growth comes along with a handful of ups and downs. On the upside, the chances of a draconian future coming down the pipeline are minimal. Having more first-world countries means that there are more and more resources available to help lift third and second-world countries out of poverty. In general, population control is thought to be a good thing. However, it tends to be a double-edged sword. China, the US, Europe, Japan, most first-world nations are going to see a dramatic metamorphosis. As the baby boomers age and begin to die our entire social fabric is at risk. The burden of supporting baby boomers through their elderly years will fall on the shoulders of Millenials and eventually gen z.
Our working class will shrink significantly while the number of elders requiring health care and other support will expand exponentially. The coming years will be a true test for the West. The world has never seen the results of widespread wealth and comfortable living. Does it come to an end? Is it a cycle? Do third-world countries become first-world and then revert to third again? Of course, at this point, all theories are merely hypothetical. This could potentially be one of the most critical issues of the 21st century. How the puzzle fits together will be an extraordinary problem to solve, but I have confidence it can be done.
Sources:
2020 Census | U.S. Census Bureau
