The 2024 U.S. Election: What does it mean for Canada?

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The economic, social, political, and geographic ties between the United States of America and Canada are unlike those of many other nations. Since the two countries share the world’s largest land border, and have trade agreements which are worth millions of dollars, it can be seen that they are closely connected to one another. Therefore, the changes made to the government of one country would cause significant consequences (both positive and negative) on the governance of the other.

The 2024 USA Elections:

The results of the recent American elections, held on Tuesday November 5th, confirm a significant lead of the Republican Party, with Donald J Trump as the leader, in the Presidential Elections, as well as the Senate and the House. This way, these elections will most likely change the leadership of the American government, from the Democrats to the Republicans. The Republican government is described as more right wing, with more conservative policies, while the Democratic government leans to the left, and follows the ideologies of modern liberalism.

Impact on Canada:

According to a news article on BBC (link below), the new government in America could impact the following on Canada:

1. Personal Ties between Washington D.C. and Ottawa:

While Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump have cooperated in the past, notably on the USMCA (formerly known as NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement), and Trudeau has congratulated Trump on the recent win, there have been instances in their past when their relationship was rather tumultuous.

For example, Trump has called Trudeau “a far left lunatic” and “two-faced,” while Trudeau has seemed to mock Trump at a NATO meeting. As well, the Liberal Party’s left wing ideologies which include increased racial equality, environmentalism, increasing taxes and social programs, and increasing immigration, clash with the more traditional and conservative ideologies of the Republicans.

According to former Canadian diplomat Louise Blais, the process of forging a strong relationship with Trump would be made even more difficult due to the possibility of a change in the Canadian government in the Canadian federal election next year.

However, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has assured that even though many Canadians are feeling unsettled after this US election, “Canada will be prosperous, Canadians will be safe and our sovereign identity will be secure as we work with this newly elected administration.”

2. Trading Ties

Canada is heavily reliant upon trade with the US, in order for our economy to prosper. Canada exports 75% of its good and services to the US. This way, Donald Trump’s promised 10% trade tariffs (taxes on imported products), could significantly affect our economy.

In July, the Business Development Bank of Canada estimated that around $7 billion could be removed from Canada’s GDP, driving down the value of the Canadian dollar, if an across-the-board tariff were to be implemented by America. This would negatively affect our already slowing economy.

In 2026, the USMCA, which guarantees free trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico, could be decided to be extended for 16 more years. Whether or not it will be extended, economic experts advise that Canada should use the strategy of reminding the Americans that the deal has been good for them, in order to ensure the future of the trade agreement.

It is also recommended that Canada should make some negotiations, especially when it comes to trade with the US. For example, Canada’s Digital Services Tax, which imposes a 3% tax on major foreign digital services like Google and Amazon, has been frowned upon by America, especially by Donald Trump’s administration. Therefore, in order to maintain a positive trade relation with the U.S., Canada might need to reconsider some of its trade policies.

3. Border Security

With Donald Trump’s threats of mass deportations of illegal immigrants in the U.S., many experts predict that this could increase the number of people who cross the Canadian border.

In 2017, many people began to cross into Canada’s border via Roxham Road, which was an unofficial access point to the New York – Quebec border. While these people had various reasons for using this route, many reported being concerned of their ability to stay in America under Trump’s policies, believing they would instead be welcomed into Canada. Since then, the two countries have worked together to close any unofficial border points, but many people still make the attempt to cross the border.

Deputy PM Freeland has stated that she “wanted to assure Canadians that we absolutely do recognise the importance of border security and control of the border.”

Nonetheless, in order to control border security and solve any potential issues that may arise in the future, Canadian-American relations are imperative.

TL;DR

Due to the fact that Canada shares such close ties with America, the change in American governance brought by the 2024 elections mean that there will be significant impacts on Canada. In order to ensure peace and prosperity in both nations, however, it is important that both make compromises in order to cooperate, to ensure a stable future for both countries.

 

Link to BBC news article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce31ngvlvd3o?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

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