The hubbub in Egypt was nothing but an uprising and civil unrest until Feb. 11, when now former president Mubarak left the capital for his resort in Sharm el-Sheik where a transfer of power from the president to the army occurred, and as of Feb. 14 it consolidated its power. The army promises to hold peace talks with Israel and set up liberal elections by dissolving the parliament and suspending the consititution until such an election in six months.
Wait what?
Yes, I understand perfectly that transitioning into democracy takes a bit longer than a night, but the illiberal acts committed by the army echos a gentle reminder that the revolution has just started and we are still on thin ice. With democracy still quite far in the horizon, what happens in the next few months will not only decide the future of Egypt, but also of international relations in the Middle East.
The military’s neutrality during the times of the riots already drew suspicious looks from the world and it was suggested that the military may be doing so to consolidate its own power in Egypt. Though the military is claiming to only hold temporary power until stability is reached, it is not liable to do anything, especially with the constitution suspended. The military could easy impose martial law indefinitely and slip Egypt into another dictatorship, or it can mismanage issues in Egypt leading to instability and future riots.
International relations in the Middle East might also be drastically revised. Mubarak was perhaps the west’s favorite dictator, for he was a crucial component in the Middle East for peace and stability. With him gone and the once-considered radical Muslim Brotherhood taking on a status as a legitimate political option, things may rapidly sour in the land that was already shaking. The uprisings have also spurred on a wave of protests around the world against their governments, with some ending in suppression such as those in Iran. Ironically, Ahmadinejad praised uprisings away from home for democracy while he suppressed those of his own nation.
Let’s not also forget that while these protests were going on, much of the economy and workforce was on standstill. Coupled with the workers strike at Cairo’s airport and at the nation’s largest textile factory economists warn that Egypt could plunge into a deep economic downturn if things don’t start working for the better. And as we all know, nothing supports a developing democracy like a failing economy.
Follow the events in Egypt on the NYT.