Election day is one day away. Following the journalistic tradition, I will make some predictions on the election results.
Polls are always a great spot to start. Recent polls had disclosing confusing figures. Most of the polls taken within the last week would suggest an extremely close race between Ric McIver and Barb Higgins. The whole story can be found at http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2010/10/calgary-mayoral-election-four-polls-one-horse-race-and-element-m. Furthermore, a dubious poll by Ledger placed McIver first but Nenshi in second, sparking more questions and uncertainty about the electoral situation. Nevertheless, the polls clearly indicate that the race is at most a three-way race amongst McIver, Higgins and Nenshi.
Let’s start the speculative process by looking at the individual platforms. McIver is a conservative who opposes the previous council. Most of his policies are somewhat in contrast to how business is run currently. However, his driving philosophy is still conservative and fairly right wing. McIver stolidly supports the further development of transportation infrastructure, especially the southwest Ring Road, and has introduced a new plan for better and more thorough snow plowing. Like the other candidates, he advocates for more accountability at city council using a CAT (Cost Control, Accountability, Transparency) monitoring test. Finally, McIver has promised a 4 per cent or less tax hike, although the practicality of this promise can be challenged. His greatest advantage would be his previous experience at City Council and endorsements he has received from aldermen. He is expected to win more council votes than the previous mayor and make more changes.
Higgins is also a conservative but one who more or less supports the last council and is determined to make smaller revisions. Her policies focus on a more efficient arrangement of City Council through a restructuring. This restructuring includes a more responsible auditing system. Higgins also introduces a bulk of strategies to improve public safety and transportation. One of her focuses is to introduce more city life and to “create the city we want.” As a news anchor, she lacks real experience as a politician but makes up for it in fame. Having a household name, Barb Higgins may increase citizen participation in the municipal government and also gain the most popular support.
Nenshi would be the liberal of the race. He is extremely poised to bring more social programs to a deprived Calgary. He offers a range of “better ideas” that try to improve the city. These ideas revolve around two themes. One is to be more efficient. His plans to improve efficiency at city hall are very comprehensive and specific including greater transparency and a third party auditor. He supports construction projects and better athletic programs in the city. Overall, his policy will increase spending from city hall but at the same time increase the quantity and quality of services offered by the city. His appeal lies within his education at Harvard, his past experience with non-profit and his thorough understanding of political science.
Now, the burning question needs to be answered? Who will win and in what order? A lot of speculation has occurred. Many suggest that Higgins will pick up a large number of votes just by her fame. Others suggest that Ric McIver has the lead because both Nenshi and Higgins are both “new perspectives” to city hall and may split the vote. Finally, others even have stated that Nenshi has the advantage because the conservative vote will be split.
In my own prediction, I think McIver has the most solid shot at a mayoral position. His resume speaks tons for him. He incorporates some of the new progressive thinking in his opposition to the old while representing the experienced and well-connected former alderman. Despite Nenshi’s best efforts, Higgins will probably come in second. Nenshi’s campaign at best reached the informed segment of Calgarians. The uninformed will either pick the old name McIver or maybe the familiar name Higgins. I seriously question Nenshi’s prospects for winning in the grand scheme. It must be recognized that the majority of people who didn’t take the time to take telephone polls will not be inclined to vote for a new face in the race for mayor. Of course, that leaves Nenshi in third.
Of course, this is just my two cents. Nenshi and Higgins both have a shot at getting Calgary’s top job. We will have to wait and see for the actual verdict.